李小冯,骆铭,孙(奭韦)华,路宗满,景岩
LI Xiao-feng1,LUO Ming2,SUN Shi-hua2,LU Zong-man3,JING Yan4(1.Exploration and Development Research Institute of Daqing Oilfield Company Ltd.

• 1:大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院
• 2:中国石油大学(北京)石油天然气工程学院
• 3:大庆油田有限责任公司第一采油厂
• 4:大庆油田有限责任公司第三采油厂

摘要(Abstract)：

针对目前油田对油井压裂潜力预测的准确性仍不能满足开发规划需要的问题,采用边际成本与油藏工程相结合的分析方法,建立了油井压裂措施的经济界限模型;同时应用数理统计理论与多元线性回归方法结合,建立了油田不同开发区块不同压裂井产量预测模型。将以上建立的2个模型有机结合,确定了更加准确预测油井压裂潜力的方法,并应用该预测模型及方法对大庆油田葡北区块2口油井进行了普通压裂潜力预测。预测结果表明,这2口油井具有压裂潜力。压裂后,其累计增油量为1 512 t,实际投入产出比1∶4.05,达到了预测的效果。
At present,the oil well fracturing potential forecasting accuracy can't meet the demands of the development planning.The economic limit model of producers fracturing is established based on the theory of marginal cost and petroleum engineering.With the application of mathematical statistics theory and multivariate linear regression,the production forecast model for different fracturing wells in different development blocks of oilfields is established.With the combination of these two models,the method that can accurately forecasts the fracturing potential is determined,and this method is used to two oil wells in Block Pubei of Daqing oilfield.The results indicate that both wells have fracturing potential.In 2006,these 2 wells were fractured and the predicted results were achieved with cumulative incremental production of 1 512t,and actual input/output ratio of 1∶4.05.

关键词(KeyWords)： 油井压裂潜力;边际成本;经济界限;产量预测
fracturing potential of producers;marginal cost;economic limit;production forecast

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 李小冯,骆铭,孙(奭韦)华,路宗满,景岩
LI Xiao-feng1,LUO Ming2,SUN Shi-hua2,LU Zong-man3,JING Yan4(1.Exploration and Development Research Institute of Daqing Oilfield Company Ltd.

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