毛伟,贾红兵,包志晶
MAO Wei,JIA Hongbing,BAO Zhijing

• 1:大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

现有文献提出了Arps指数递减、双曲递减、调和递减分别对应油相相对渗透率和含水饱和度的直线、幂函数、指数函数形式。基于最常用的相对渗透率经验公式,提出了油相、水相相对渗透率通式,其中油相相对渗透率通式可简化成直线、幂函数和指数函数,给出了确定通式系数的试差法。对文献上的相对渗透率数据进行拟合,指出通式精度要高于幂函数和指数函数,具有普适性。在油相相对渗透率通式基础上,从物质平衡原理出发,推出Arps产量递减方程通式。鉴于水驱曲线和预测模型相结合的联解法预测含水率时存在的问题,从含水率定义出发,应用Arps产量递减方程预测产油量,根据瞬时产水和初始产水的关系及水相相对渗透率通式预测产水量,最终预测含水率。具体实例含水率预测结果表明该方法可行,克服了联解法的不足。
The presented Arps exponential decline,hyperbolic decline,harmonic decline in the existed literatures are correspond to the linear,power function and exponential function formulas between the oil relative permeability and water saturation respectively.Based on the most popular empirical formulas,the general formulae of the oil and water relative permeabilities have been proposed,among these forms,the oil one can be simplified into the straight line,power function and exponential functions,finally the trial-error method of determining the coefficients in the general formula is presented.The matches on the relative permeabilities in the literatures show that the precisions of the general formula are higher than those of the power and exponential functions,so the general formulae are of universal.On the basis of the general formula of the oil relative permeability and from the viewpoint of mass balance principle,the general formula of Arps production decline equation is derived.In view of the problems existed in the combined solution method between the water drive curve and predicting model when forecasting the water cut,from the viewpoint of the watercut definition,the oil production is predicted according to Arps production decline equation,and then with the helps of the relationship between the instantaneous and initial water productions and moreover the general formula of the water relative permeability,the water production is predicted,finally so is done the water cut.The predicted results of the specific case study show that the method is feasible and has overcome the shortcomings of the combined solution method.

关键词(KeyWords)： Arps递减方程;双曲递减;相对渗透率;通式;含水率
Arps production decline equation;hyperbolic decline;relative permeability;general expression/formula;water cut

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家科技重大专项课题“特低渗油藏有效开发技术”(2011ZX05013-006)

作者(Author): 毛伟,贾红兵,包志晶
MAO Wei,JIA Hongbing,BAO Zhijing

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