施尚明,孙小洁,韩殿杰
Chen ;Zongqing (Geological E&D Research Institute ;Sichuan Petroleum Administrative ;

• 1:大庆石油学院
• 2:大庆石油管理局地质录井公司

摘要(Abstract)：

针对探井油、气、水层识别中的诸多不确定性因素，提出了综合识别的概率法。即用概率论中的贝叶斯（ＢＡＹＥＳ）公式计算出各参数条件下不同产层类型的概率值，根据专家经验赋予不同参数以不同的权值，进而取得探区的油、气、水层综合识别的概率模型。编制成计算机程序后，在松辽盆地西部葡西、新站地区实际应用，综合识别效果良好。
Lichuan synclinorium from Silurian System to Triassic System has 7 combinations of oil source rock, reservoir and cap rock . Oil source rock has the tendency of getting worse from bottom to top. According to calculation results, hydrocarbon generation amount of Silurian System occupies 85% of that of the whole area. So exploration target zones should be Carboniferous System to Permian System. The reef dolomite in Permian Changxing Formation in the south part of the synclinorium, and the dolomite at the bottom of Triassic Jiaer Member are both ideal reservoirs. Reservoirs in Carboniferous, Permian Maoko Formation and Triassic Dasan Member show the tendency of turning better from east to west. So if there exists trap in the west flank of the synclinorium that is the east syncline in Qiyueshan structural belt, it should be the most prospecting gas reservoir in the area.

关键词(KeyWords)： 油气水层,综合识别,概率,录井参数
Lichuan Area in Hubei , Synclinorium, Carboniferous system, Triassic system, Oil source rock, reservoir and cap rock, Evaluation

Abstract:

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作者(Authors): 施尚明,孙小洁,韩殿杰
Chen ;Zongqing (Geological E&D Research Institute ;Sichuan Petroleum Administrative ;

参考文献(References)：

• 1，周家珩（译）：概率法在石油勘探中的应用，石油工业出版社（北京），1987。2，王梓坤：概率论基础及应用，科学出版社（北京），1979。3，周迪勋：专家系统设计原理，武汉工业大学出版社（武汉），1992。