孙强,邓兵,马丽梅
SUN Qiang; et al. (No. 2 Oil Production Plant of Daqing Oil-field Company Ltd. ; Daqing 163414 China);

• 1:大庆油田有限责任公司第二采油厂
• 2:大庆油田有限责任公司第二采油厂
• 3:大庆油田有限责任公司第二采油厂 黑龙江 大庆 163414
• 4:黑龙江 大庆 163414

摘要(Abstract)：

在聚合物驱开发指标测算过程中,目前采用的数值模拟方法需要建立区块的地质模型,在对聚合物驱生产过程进行跟踪拟合并求得聚合物地下工作参数后,才能预测后期产量变化。这样做的工作量大,不能及时满足年度规划和中长期规划的编制要求。本文通过将广义翁氏预测模型与瑞利预测模型应用到聚合物驱产量预测过程中,提出了预测聚合物驱阶段产量随开发时间变化的方法。应用本文提供的方法,对南二区东部聚合物驱含水回升阶段的月产油量进行了预测,结果表明,预测精度能够达到年度规划与长期规划的要求,具有一定的应用价值。
During calculating produclion indexes, the method of nu-merical simulation demands to establish a geologic model of the block at present, and perform a tracking matching to the producing course of polymer flooding as well as evaluate work parameter of polymer, after which it can predict output variety of the latter stage. This work is very fussy, and does not satisfy the request of compiling to year programming and long term programming. This paper, through applying the generalized Weng?modei and the Ray-leigh modei to accumulation and drive output forecast, gives a method that can predict output variety as time changing in polymer flooding. Using method, we predict monthly the oil output in the water cut raise stage in the east of Nanerqu. The result shows that the accuracy can satisfy the need of year programming and long term programming, and have some value for application.

关键词(KeyWords)： 广义翁氏预测模型;瑞利预测模型;聚合物驱产量预测
generalized Weng' s model; Rayleigh model; predicting the producting of polymer flooding

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 孙强,邓兵,马丽梅
SUN Qiang; et al. (No. 2 Oil Production Plant of Daqing Oil-field Company Ltd. ; Daqing 163414 China);

参考文献(References)：

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• [2] 数学手册编写组.数学手册[A].北京:高等教育出版社,1979．