刘铁男,王玲
Liu Tienan & Wang Ling ;(Daqing Petroleum Institute);

• 1:大庆石油学院
• 2:大庆石油学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文对我国历年石油产量数据进行了分析,建立了关于石油产量的数学模型。并根据此数据具有按季度的周期性这一特点,应用分离技术,把周期性时间序列化为四个仅含趋势性的时间序列,然后对每个序列应用多层递阶预报方法进行了预报。预报结果令人满意。
In the paper, the data for annual oil production in China aic analysed, and mathemaiic models for oil production are developed. Based on ihc data characteristics of quarterly periodicity, wilh the separation technique, the periodic time sequence are divided into four time subsequences which possess tendency only. Then multi-stages stepwise method is used to predict each sequence. The results are satisfactory.

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作者(Authors): 刘铁男,王玲
Liu Tienan & Wang Ling ;(Daqing Petroleum Institute);

DOI: 10.19597/j.issn.1000-3754.1986.04.008

参考文献(References)：

• [1] 韩志刚:动态系统预报的一种新方法,《自动化学报》,1983年,第3期。
• [2] Z.G.Han(1982): A Recursive Estimates Method of the Nonlinear Stochastic System and Its Convergence Analysis. 6th IFAC Syrup. ON Identification and System Parameter Estimation, Washington. D.C.
• [3] 姜继忱:关于一类递推算法的进一步探讨,《黑龙江大学自然科学学报》,1982年,第1期。