一种新型油气产量预测模型A NEW MODEL FOR PREDICTING OIL ANG GAS PRODUCTION
周芸,周福建,冯连勇
ZHOU Yun,ZHOU Fujian,FENG Lianyong
摘要(Abstract)：
高效预测油气田产量走势一直是石油领域一项重要研究,精准预测油气田动态产量是合理制定油田规划方案、实现高效管理和开发的关键步骤。为了确保方案的科学性及合理提高产量预测的精确度,根据油气开采过程中产量动态变化规律,选取了Hubbert预测和广义翁氏预测2种常规数学模型,在最优化理论的基础上全方位考虑了其特征性,建立了以广义翁氏模型和Hubbert模型为基础的新型油气产量预测的最优化模型。通过对某油田往年生产数据拟合分析表明:该最优化模型不仅保持了广义翁氏模型的优势,而且弥补了Hubbert预测模型的缺点;利用最优化数学方法将2种模型有效结合,预测结果较为精准,适用于油气田产量预测。
High-efficiency prediction of the oil and gas production trend has been an important research in the field of the oil,and accurate prediction of the dynamic production of oil and gas fields is the key step to reasonably compile the oilfield planning program,realize the high-efficiency management and of development. In order to ensure the scientific nature of the program and enhance the accuracy of the production prediction to a certain reasonable degree,according to the dynamic change laws of the oil and gas production,two kinds of the conventional mathematical model i. e. Hubbert production predicting model and the generalized Weng's predicting model were chosen,on the basis of the optimization theory,all-round considered the characteristics and established the optimized new model to predict the oil and gas production based on the two models stated above. The matching analysis of the previous years' data of an oilfield shows that the optimal model not only preserves the advantages of the generalized Weng's model,but also to make up the shortcomings of Hubbert predicting model; with the help of the mathematical optimization approach,two models are effectively matched,the predicted results are much more precise,so all the achievements are suitable for the oil and gas field production prediction.
关键词(KeyWords)：
油气产量预测;动态拟合;广义翁氏模型;Hubbert模型;最优化模型
oil and gas production prediction;dynamic match;generalized Weng's model;Hubbert model;optimized model
基金项目(Foundation): 中国石油大学科学基金项目(2462014YJRC015)资助
作者(Author):
周芸,周福建,冯连勇
ZHOU Yun,ZHOU Fujian,FENG Lianyong
DOI: 10.19597/j.issn.1000-3754.201711011
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