低渗透油藏油井递减后产量递减不确定性评价方法EVALUATING METHOD OF THE PRODUCTION DECLINE UNCERTAINTY FOR LOW PERMEABILITY OIL RESERVOIRS
丁冠阳,黄世军,张雪娇
DING Guanyang,HUANG Shijun,ZHANG Xuejiao
摘要(Abstract)：
针对低渗透油藏产量递减评估问题,建立了产量递减的不确定性分析方法,并明确了参数不确定性对累计产量的影响。通过分析某低渗透油藏的生产数据,确定了油藏初始产量、递减指数、递减率所满足的概率分布函数,考虑油藏非均质性的影响,利用蒙特卡洛方法,预测了油井产量的变化,并开展主控因素的不确定性分析。结果表明:不确定性递减分析方法预测了不同概率下的产量递减情况,依次得到油井有10%、50%、90%可能达到的评估结果,相较于传统方法,更准确地反映了油藏的生产变化;递减指数和递减率的不确定范围对累计产量的预测精度影响很大,而对初始产量的影响较小。新建立的产量递减不确定性预测方法能够提高低渗透油藏产量评估的可靠性,为优化低渗油藏开发效果提供借鉴。
In the light of the problem of the production decline assessment for low permeability oil reservoirs,the uncertainty analyzing method of the decline was established,and moreover the influences of the parameter uncertainty on the cumulative production were clarified. With the help of the analyses of the production data of a certain low-permeability oil reservoir,the probability distribution functions of the initial production,decline exponent and decline rate were determined,considering the effects of the reservoir heterogeneity,Monte Carlo method was used to predict the changes of the oil well production,at the same time,the uncertainty analyses of the main control factors were conducted. The achievements show that the production decline conditions under different probabilities can be predicted through the uncertainty decline method,and the evaluation results of P10,P50 and P90 of the wells can be obtained,as a result,the changes of the reservoir production are more accurate comparing with the traditional methods; the uncertainty ranges of the decline exponent and decline rate have a great effects on the predicted-precision of the the cumulative production,while they have little effects on the initial production. The newly-establisheduncertainty forecasting method of the production declinecan improve the reliability inthe production assessment for low-permeability oil reservoirs and provide the references for optimizing the development effects of the low-permeability oil reservoirs.
关键词(KeyWords)：
递减曲线;蒙特卡洛;不确定性分析;产量评估
decline curve;Monte Carlo;uncertainty analysis;production evaluation
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目“页岩储层纳孔微缝耦合系统全息表征方法研究”(41672132)
作者(Author):
丁冠阳,黄世军,张雪娇
DING Guanyang,HUANG Shijun,ZHANG Xuejiao
DOI: 10.19597/J.ISSN.1000-3754.201703007
参考文献(References)：
- [1]刘绍光,陈立军,何文忠,等.特低渗透油田精细测井解释模型[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2015,34(3):152-155.
- [2]方文超,姜汉桥,孙彬峰.低渗致密气藏基质酸化产能评价及特征分析[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2014,33(1):106-110.
- [3]束青林,郭迎春,孙志刚,等.特低渗透油藏渗流机理研究及应用[J].油气地质与采收率,2016,23(5):58-64.
- [4]汪全林,柴世超,程自力,等.基于两相流低渗油藏合理注采井距确定方法[J].东北石油大学学报,2012,36(4):45-48.
- [5]殷代印,王东琪,周亚洲,等.长垣外围特低渗透油藏扶杨油层分类界限[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2016,35(6):37-42.
- [6]郝明强,胡永乐,李凡华.特低渗透油藏压裂水平井产量递减规律[J].石油学报,2012,33(2):269-273.
- [7]Wilson A.Comparison of Empirical and Analytical Methods for Production Forecasting[J].Journal of Petroleum Technology,2015,67(4):133-136.
- [8]陈元千,周翠.线性递减类型的建立、对比与应用[J].石油学报,2015,36(8):983-987.
- [9]朱圣举,张皎生,安小平.剩余可采储量采油速度与Arps递减规律关系[J].特种油气藏,2016,23(4):105-108.
- [10]刘占良,王琪,张林,等.苏里格气田东区气井产量递减规律[J].新疆石油地质,2015,36(1):82-85.
- [11]潘凌,方全堂,段永刚,等.低渗油藏非均质性对采收率的影响因素研究[J].西南石油大学学报(自然科学版),2012,34(3):111-115.
- [12]朱维耀,王明,刘合,等.特低渗油层非达西渗流压裂水平井非定常渗流产能预测新方法[J].特种油气藏,2010,17(5):63-66.
- [13]杜少剑,陈伟忠,刘元海.投资组合保险策略的蒙特卡洛实证比较分析[J].中国矿业大学学报,2005,34(3):363-368.
- [14]赵艳丽,高向东,戚宗锋,等.基于空气动力模型的助推-滑翔导弹跟踪[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2010(5):24-29.
- [15]梁杰,李志辉,杜波强,等.大型航天器再入陨落时太阳翼气动力/热模拟分析[J].宇航学报,2015,36(12):1348-1355.
- [16]高留刚,赵经武,吴应宇,等.GATE在核医学成像和放射治疗中的蒙特卡洛模拟[J].中国医学物理学杂志,2013,30(4):34-38.
- [17]王晓晗,郭红霞,雷志锋,等.基于蒙特卡洛和器件仿真的单粒子翻转计算方法[J].物理学报,2014,63(19):255-261.